China's solar photovoltaic domestic demand market is still difficult to be optimistic in 2011

When China's solar photovoltaic industry fell into a trough in 2008-2009, the entire industry chain was criticized by “bubbles,” “blindness,” and “waste,” because few people dared to foresee that the industry ushered in another year after only one year. . The installed capacity of solar power systems in mainland China has jumped from 40MW in 2008 to 160MW in 2009 to 486MW in 2010. If several large-scale photovoltaic power plants not included in the end of the year are added, it will definitely exceed 500MW. The earned pottery vendors were supposed to be in high spirits in 2011, but the industry has become embarrassed and confused. One of the most audible questions I heard at the International Solar and Photovoltaic Conference held in Shanghai on February 22-24 was: “What should I do next?” Unsustainable external demand In 2010, the global solar PV installed capacity was about It is twice as many as in 2009. However, after experiencing the ups and downs of the two solar photovoltaic industries in 2005-06 and 08-09, the industry has basically reached a consensus on the fluctuation of market demand in 2011. The most direct is from the judgment of the European market. To date, the largest market for the solar photovoltaic industry is in Europe, especially Germany (accounting for nearly half of the global installed capacity), Spain, France, the Czech Republic and Italy. It is expected that there will be many unfavorable factors affecting the market demand of countries in 2011. In Germany, the government's development of the solar photovoltaic industry's pusher EEG (Renewable Energy Law) has a very specific reduction in the price of complete power supply systems. For example, systems with less than 30 KW are expected to fall by more than 30% in 2012. The government is increasingly sensitive to the cost of upfront investment, and is gradually reducing subsidies for solar power generation, so it is unlikely that there will be another spurt demand in 2010. Due to its own economic problems, Spain has invested too fast in the solar industry in the past two years, and there is no hope for recovery in 2011. France studied Germany and adopted a series of restrictions to develop photovoltaic power generation more healthily, including freezing system projects of more than 3KW for three months and encouraging complete sets of equipment to be manufactured in France. In the Czech Republic, the investment in photovoltaic power generation accounted for 0.4% of GDP in 2010, and the power generation has already accounted for 3.3% of the country's total power generation. This is also a fairly high figure in Europe, and the subsequent demand tends to be stable. At present, there are many different voices in Italy, demanding to stop the rapid development of the solar industry, especially the call for setting the upper limit of the total installed capacity is getting stronger and stronger, which casts a big shadow on the development of the country's solar industry. Due to the visible shrinkage of major traditional market demand, global demand in 2011 is estimated at 19 to 24 GW. However, the production scale of China's solar photovoltaic industry alone has reached 26.6 GW in 2010, so the industry will obviously have excess. For Chinese companies, exports are bound to decrease, so what about the way to improve domestic demand? The game between business and government At present, China's solar industry, including enterprises and research institutions, is calling for a key issue - electricity prices. In 2011, the government approved the 0.7288 yuan / kWh purchase price is lower than market expectations. Some provinces and cities (such as some second-tier cities in Anhui) charge electricity to enterprises more than 1 yuan / degree. Power generation companies generally believe that, like all new energy industries, the popularity of solar power generation equipment requires advanced investment and government subsidies. This is also an international practice. If the electricity bill is not properly subsidized, solar power will have no profit, and companies are naturally reluctant to increase the share of such losses, and banks are not willing to provide financing support. Therefore, China's solar energy industry and power companies are not willing to fully invest in the domestic solar energy market, and have been waiting for the government to increase support measures such as purchasing electricity prices. The company only ran around and was unstable. The typical example is to take advantage of the 2010 boom, all of which tend to purchase production equipment and raw materials that can bring significant benefits through short-term large-scale investment, instead of cultivating long-term research and development, technological upgrading, and promoting the popularization of solar power plants. Wait. Since the development speed, power generation cost and equipment manufacturing cost of several major projects and leading enterprises have not reached the level expected by the government, in early 2011, the central government further reduced the support for the solar energy industry, including the suspension of the promotion of solar photovoltaic development. The 64 projects in the Golden Sun plan involve at least several billion yuan of subsidies. The government may do this based on the following considerations: 1) High subsidies will inevitably affect public finances. If higher purchase prices are implemented, the more subsidies will be put into production, the more the central government will release the signal of tightening in 2011. 2) Continued subsidies will encourage companies in the solar energy industry chain to continue to explode on the basis of rapid development in 2010. In 2010, there were hundreds of new on-line module production lines, with a direct investment of 51.5 billion yuan, 16 companies listed overseas, 2 companies in China IPO, and 17 listed companies announced the solar photovoltaic industry as the main growth point. Development Plan. All of this makes the government worry that the bubble will suddenly expand to the risk of sudden bursting. 3) Supporting the solar energy industry will inevitably affect the transformation of the power grid, balancing the existing thermal power generation and nuclear power plants and many other aspects, involving a wide range of interests. For example, wind power plants that developed earlier than solar power plants, many projects invested heavily, because the grid interconnection problem is more subtle, but it is abandoned after it is built. The government of the past must not consider it. As a result, China’s solar power generation problem has become a problem of “developing first and then letting it mature” or “developing after the technology matures”. The two voices are arguing endlessly. If the attitude and determination of the central government are not clear, then the introduction of solar energy industry regulations and the detailed and effective implementation of specific policies, at least in 2011, may not see obvious results. Countermeasures In the Chinese mainland market, the price of crystalline silicon, the raw material for solar cells, is still rising in February, while the price of battery modules has been declining. The main reason is that there are too many new lines to be put into production in 2010. And each new line that is put into production needs to have 2 quarters of raw material inventory. In this way, hundreds of new lines of warehouses contain hundreds of GW of silicon raw materials. While exploring how to expand and maintain market demand, companies that have survived a few years of reshuffle are also considering ways to improve their overall strength. They recognize that if China's solar industry only focuses on the production module in the industrial chain, even if the technology is good, it is just a dumping ground for foreign silicon raw materials and production equipment, and a foundry of international energy companies. In order to develop for a long time, it must extend to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Relative to the development of upstream raw materials requires a long-term accumulation process, and the extension to the downstream field is relatively easy. While establishing and improving supporting industries such as logistics, installation, after-sales service, product inspection and certification, we will build a common trading platform and distributor channel network to make solar products more adaptable to flexible market needs. In addition, from the enterprises to the institutions, from the central ministries and commissions to the county-level local governments, the number of research institutions for solar raw materials is huge, but they are scattered and separate, and the division of labor and cooperation and information sharing are not sufficient. The above issues are the focus of the government in 2011. In 2011, the only thing that gave the solar industry a little peace of mind was that local governments remained enthusiastic and their willingness to develop the solar photovoltaic industry was significantly higher than that of the central government and the national grid. But who can say that this is a blessing or a curse?  

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