When the two sessions are going on: it is imperative to adjust the structure

True reflection of national conditions

Do not shy away from the problem, show determination and confidence to solve the problem

In the past few days, Premier Wen Jiabao’s three outlines of the 11th Five-Year Plan proposed in the government work report have failed to meet the standards, which has led to deep thinking of many deputies.

Among the 22 major indicators of economic and social development identified in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, 8 of the binding indicators were all realized, 14 of the 14 expected indicators were achieved, and 3 expected indicators were not completed: the added value of the service industry and The proportion of employment, research and experimental development expenditures accounted for the proportion of GDP.

The former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Li Deshui, said that although the requirements of the 11th Five-Year Plan were not met, in terms of their own values, the three indicators during the 11th Five-Year Plan period still achieved an average annual rate of 2.5% and 3.5%. 0.5% growth rate.

Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, pointed out that Premier Wen Jiabao first proposed three unfinished indicators for the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" in the government work report, facing the problems and deficiencies, and did not blindly put results, but will not work. Placed in place and trayd out. "If you don't avoid the problem, you can push the problem to solve it," he said.

The three expected indicators have not been achieved, reflecting the unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable problems in China’s development.

The representative of Zhengtai Group Co., Ltd. Nan Cunhui said: "The three unfinished indicators are the true reflection of the current national conditions. They are written into the government work report and further clarified in the draft of the '12th Five-Year Plan'. Shows determination and confidence to drive problem resolution."

Multi-factor constraints "not up to standard"

Unreasonable industrial structure and market structure are the root causes

The reasons for the failure of the three indicators are multifaceted. Li Deshui believes that the added value of the service industry does not meet the target of GDP. The main reason is the impact of the international financial crisis. China increased its investment in fixed assets in 2008 and 2009, and the proportion of the secondary industry increased. The proportion of the tertiary industry.

It is an old problem that the proportion of R&D expenditure is not up to standard. "We must have a strong sense of urgency and crisis for R&D expenditure. We must increase this proportion as soon as possible." Li Deshui said that this is very disproportionate to China's economic scale and also shows China's economy. The extensiveness of growth. To transform the economic development mode, we must fundamentally rely on the advancement of science and technology and the improvement of scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The core of international competition is the competition of scientific and technological innovation.

Chen Xiwen pointed out that the two indicators of the service industry did not meet the standards. On the one hand, because of the problem of statistical caliber design, some industries should be in the service industry, but they were classified into other fields according to the current statistical caliber. On the other hand, China's fiscal and taxation policies are not enough support for the service industry. In many provinces, the manufacturing industry is developing rapidly, and the service industry is a short-board. This shows that there are still problems in the economic structure and employment structure, and adjustments are still not in place.

Analyst Shu Qingnian of China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. analyzed that the urbanization process is lagging and the income distribution pattern is unreasonable, which restricts the development potential of the service industry. SMEs and private capital, which are vital to the development of the service industry, still face difficulties in market access barriers, financing difficulties, tax burdens and legal costs.

“The service industry employment ratio index also has a certain relationship with the changes in China's labor market structure.” Sun Yudong, a professor at the Renmin University of China, believes that the problem of labor shortage is outstanding in the service industry, indicating that the service industry market is continuously subdivided and workers adaptability. Room for improvement.

The representative of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zheng Yuxi, suggested that the state should consciously guide enterprises to carry out research and development innovation, so that enterprises' investment in research and development becomes a conscious behavior.

Three indicators are positively correlated

It shows that the task of adjusting structure and turning mode is arduous.

"The lag in the development of service industry highlights the problem of economic structure. The lack of R&D funding indicates that the transformation of development mode is imminent. The internal connection of the three unfinished indicators is worth considering, indicating that the task of transferring and adjusting the structure is still very difficult." Chen Xiwen said.

"From the medium and long-term empirical data, the three indicators are closely related, usually positively related." Shu Qingnian said that the growth of research and development funds will help improve the technical level of the service industry, extend the service industry chain, and increase the industrial value of the service industry. Promote the scale and quality of the service industry, and then drive the growth of related positions. The increase in the added value of the service industry can also drive R&D investment. Especially when the service industry develops to a certain level, the labor factor price will increase rapidly, which will lead to a significant increase in the importance of R&D investment. The whole industry will enter the benign nature mainly relying on scientific and technological progress to promote development. Cycle phase.

"The common factor affecting the realization of these three indicators is that domestic demand, especially consumer demand, is insufficient." Shu Qingnian said that this shows that China's current economic development mode has not yet been fundamentally changed, the industrial structure is still dominated by industry, and the demand structure is still exported. Investment is the dominant factor, the pressure on resources and environment is increasing, and it is more difficult to expand employment. He believes that the key to solving this series of problems is to accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode throughout the entire process of industrial restructuring and optimization.

Zheng Yuxi believes that the industrial structure is constrained by the demand structure, and the demand structure is subject to the income structure. In the process of economic development, the economic structure is constantly adjusted with economic growth, which is a natural law. It is both a need for growth and a driving force for growth. "The three non-compliance indicators once again remind us that we must stand in the overall situation of economic development, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, and vigorously increase the ability of scientific and technological innovation to achieve the prosperity of the people." Sun Yudong said.  

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